Post Super Bowl Thoughts

1. The main reason I'm posting this is to bump my very wrong prediction off the top the page. Oops on that one.

2. I know it's a cliche, but I think the Saints wanted it more. I also think the Colts were complacent, assuming they would win.

3. My vote is that the worst decision the Colts made was not trying to do anything at the end of the first half. They got it back with almost two minutes to go on their own one yard line, then ran it up the middle three times. Sure, the first time you should probably run, just to get out of your own end zone, but you have Peyton Manning, who's a two-minute-drill-type guy. They had to punt it away and New Orleans got it back in time to make a field goal. If they had just tried, the Colts really could have gotten a touchdown before halftime, and it would have been 17-3 instead of 10-6. Even 13-3 would have been a huge improvement.

4. My other vote is that the best decision the Saints made was the surprise onside kick to begin the second half. I thought it was interesting when the Saints won the coin toss at the beginning of the game and decided to receive the ball right away rather than to defer. After the onside kick, I became pretty sure that Sean Payton knew he was going to start the second half that way all along. The Saints were aggressive; the Colts were passive. And there you go.

5. After the first quarter, even when the Colts were leading, I never felt like they were winning. They just didn't have the momentum.

6. Drew Brees's baby is adorable.

edited to add:
Click here to read more . . .

Happy Super Bowl, Everyone!

Yes, a Merry Super Bowl Day to you all! Let's gather 'round the glowing box and sing our favorite Super Bowl carols! And eat chips!

(My favorite Super Bowl chips are BBQ Pringles.)

Like last year, I'm going to make a pick and, I'm afraid, like last year I will choose the favorite. I hate to be so boring. It's just that the Colts are better.

I don't think it's impossible that the Saints will win. There are factors in their favor, I suppose. The Colts' best defensive guy, Dwight Freeney, is injured. He'll probably play, but he won't be at 100%. Then there's . . . um . . . lots of people want the Saints to win. Did you know that no New Orleans team has ever won a major championship of any kind, ever? It would be nice if they got that monkey of their back, let alone the Saints-specific being terrible for almost all of their 42-year history. And the Colts have other weaknesses--their run game is practically non-existent, and their coach probably isn't as good as the Saints' coach.

But the Colts are better. Drew Brees is good, but Peyton Manning is better. The Saints' receivers are good, but the Colts' are better. The Colts never lost a game they tried to win; the Saints did. The Colts have looked pretty darn good in both of their previous playoff games; the Saints haven't.

I like this Super Bowl matchup because I have no objections to either of these teams. They've both been very, very good, looking like Super Bowl contenders all season, and they both seem to be made up of a lot of decent dudes. (I'm still so happy every time I realize I don't have to listen to hours of Brett Favre praise in Super Bowl pre-game coverage, I could almost tear up.) So I'm not going to be disappointed unless it's a lame, lopsided game. Unfortunately, since the last two have been good, we're due for a snoozer. That plays into my pick of:

Colts 27, Saints 17 Click here to read more . . .

My Super Bowl Pick

It's got to be the Steelers, right?

I just feel like the Cardinals don't have that much going for them. Their assets are: Larry Fitzjerry,* that they're better than people thought they were on defense and in their run game, and crazy-underdog-voodoo-magic. Now, the second one should be canceled out by the formidable Steelers defense, which should also help neutralize Larry Fitzjerry. If the Steelers completely neutralize the Cardinals' still-not-that-great running game, then they can focus their attention on Larry. Or maybe they can just blitz the heck out of Kurt Warner so the ball never gets to Larry--that's probably more managable.

Then there's the crazy-underdog-voodoo-magic. It has worked so far, carrying the Cardinals through three whole games. But it's got to run out sometime. That's why it's crazy and magic, because that sort of thing--while nice to get--can't last forever.

Admittedly, I think I'm still annoyed with the Cardinals not so much for their regular season record (9-7, which is by definition mediocre) as for the fact that they made idiots out of themselves in some of those losses. I like underdogs, I do, but I just can't root for a team I watched lie down and allow themselves to be trampled 47-7 by the Patriots. (I watched that game because the channel that was supposedly showing a better game in that time slot actually showed an infomercial instead. Oh, I was mad.)

Lots of sports writers seem to feel the same way about the Cardinals. I read a story yesterday that argued that if the Cardinals win the Super Bowl, it will make the BCS look like a good system in comparison. [ETA: And here's a better story I just found on SI that makes the same point.] I think that's taking it too far--the best thing about a playoff is that even if it doesn't award the "best" team (see: last year's Patriots were better than the Giants, right?), it at least rewards a team based on objective criteria. One thing the NFL could do, though, is instead of giving conference champions the top four seeds and giving the two best wild cards the five and six seeds, just let in those same four champions and wild cards, but seed them by winning percentage. The Cardinals were helped by their home field advantage against Atlanta and Philadelphia, two teams that performed better than they did in the regular season. In the free-seeding approach, they wouldn't have had any home games, as befits the team with the worst record. Anyway, to return to the point . . . .

Bottom line: the Steelers are the better team. Sometimes the better team doesn't win, but since they haven't for the last three Cardinals games, and because the Steelers are by far the better team, I think they will today. And since Neal informs me that I should have a score prediction, I'm going to say . . . Steelers 24, Cardinals 14.



*I know his name isn't actually Larry Fitzjerry. I just enjoy calling him that. Try it, it's fun! Click here to read more . . .