My Super Bowl Pick

It's got to be the Steelers, right?

I just feel like the Cardinals don't have that much going for them. Their assets are: Larry Fitzjerry,* that they're better than people thought they were on defense and in their run game, and crazy-underdog-voodoo-magic. Now, the second one should be canceled out by the formidable Steelers defense, which should also help neutralize Larry Fitzjerry. If the Steelers completely neutralize the Cardinals' still-not-that-great running game, then they can focus their attention on Larry. Or maybe they can just blitz the heck out of Kurt Warner so the ball never gets to Larry--that's probably more managable.

Then there's the crazy-underdog-voodoo-magic. It has worked so far, carrying the Cardinals through three whole games. But it's got to run out sometime. That's why it's crazy and magic, because that sort of thing--while nice to get--can't last forever.

Admittedly, I think I'm still annoyed with the Cardinals not so much for their regular season record (9-7, which is by definition mediocre) as for the fact that they made idiots out of themselves in some of those losses. I like underdogs, I do, but I just can't root for a team I watched lie down and allow themselves to be trampled 47-7 by the Patriots. (I watched that game because the channel that was supposedly showing a better game in that time slot actually showed an infomercial instead. Oh, I was mad.)

Lots of sports writers seem to feel the same way about the Cardinals. I read a story yesterday that argued that if the Cardinals win the Super Bowl, it will make the BCS look like a good system in comparison. [ETA: And here's a better story I just found on SI that makes the same point.] I think that's taking it too far--the best thing about a playoff is that even if it doesn't award the "best" team (see: last year's Patriots were better than the Giants, right?), it at least rewards a team based on objective criteria. One thing the NFL could do, though, is instead of giving conference champions the top four seeds and giving the two best wild cards the five and six seeds, just let in those same four champions and wild cards, but seed them by winning percentage. The Cardinals were helped by their home field advantage against Atlanta and Philadelphia, two teams that performed better than they did in the regular season. In the free-seeding approach, they wouldn't have had any home games, as befits the team with the worst record. Anyway, to return to the point . . . .

Bottom line: the Steelers are the better team. Sometimes the better team doesn't win, but since they haven't for the last three Cardinals games, and because the Steelers are by far the better team, I think they will today. And since Neal informs me that I should have a score prediction, I'm going to say . . . Steelers 24, Cardinals 14.



*I know his name isn't actually Larry Fitzjerry. I just enjoy calling him that. Try it, it's fun!